Report — September 2026

Where cloud meets the desert.

A four-part investigation into how Azure, AWS and G42 compete for the MENA cloud and AI market by 2028 — reverse-engineered P&Ls, investment cases, and my own take on where each player is likely to win, lose, or muddle through.

Reading time: ~20 minutes. Assumptions, sources and methodology are all stated inline.

The four parts

01

Azure MENA — the Microsoft ecosystem play

Reverse-engineered revenue and margin, the Copilot bet, and one investment case: where should Azure MENA prioritize investment through 2028?

02

AWS MENA — the market leader under pressure

Estimated market share, the sovereign challenge, and one investment case: which AI vertical should AWS scale first in the region?

03

G42 / Core42 — the sovereign challenger

How the UAE conglomerate is building a third path — and whether sovereign positioning is a real moat against the hyperscalers.

04

Head-to-head — who wins MENA by 2028

Comparative view across the three players — margin, market share, sovereign wins, and my final take on where I'd bet the capital.